Analisis Peramalan Permintaan dan Pengendalian Persediaan Produk Bouquet menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing dan Economic Order Quantity pada Dunia Bouquet
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37481/sjr.v9i4.1768Keywords:
Demand Forecasting, Exponential Smoothing, Economic Order Quantity, Inventory Control, Bouquet BusinessAbstract
Fluctuating demand for bouquet products, particularly during graduation periods and celebrations, poses challenges for inventory planning at Dunia Bouquet. This study aims to forecast bouquet demand and determine the optimal order quantity, ordering frequency, and annual inventory cost. A descriptive quantitative approach was employed using historical demand estimates from September 2025 to August 2026. Data were collected through documentation and direct observation, then analyzed using Single Exponential Smoothing and Economic Order Quantity (EOQ), with forecast accuracy evaluated using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that a smoothing constant of ? = 0.1 produced the lowest forecast errors, with a MAD of 156.48, an MSE of 57,506.75, and a MAPE of 15.27%. The forecast demand for September 2026 was 826 bouquets. Based on an estimated annual demand of 10,269 bouquets, an ordering cost of IDR 25,000 per order, and an annual holding cost of IDR 5,000 per bouquet, the calculated EOQ was approximately 320 bouquets per order. This implies about 32 orders annually, at intervals of 11-12 days, with estimated annual relevant inventory costs of IDR 1,602,266. These findings provide a quantitative basis for inventory planning, although actual ordering decisions should account for seasonal demand fluctuations and changes in operating costs.
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