POST PANDEMIC INVESTMENT FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS WITH FINANCIAL ASPECT OF LUBRICANT MACHINE

The increasing demand for medical gloves during covid 19 pandemic has made PT. X decided to make an investment by buying a machine worth a total of 6.7 billion Rupiah for the business of producing lubricant gloves with particles of 100 nanometers in 2020. With the end of the pandemic, the need for lubricants has decreased dramatically in 2022, making PT. X faces a feasibility problem for the investment in the lubricant machine that has been made. This study aims to analyze the feasibility of financial aspects, namely the assessment with the Discounted Payback Period (DPP), Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) and Profitability Index (PI). The analysis was carried out with pessimistic, moderate and optimistic versions of probability. The results of research using the DPP, NPV, BCR, PI methods are not feasible for pessimistic probabilities and are feasible for moderate and optimistic probabilities

experienced an increase in market demand and are predicted to gain more profits during the pandemic (Priyono, et al., 2020).The high demand for medicines, personal protective equipment (PPE), medical equipment, ethanol, masks and gloves will also contribute to strengthening the trade balance (Ananda, 2020) The Covid 19 pandemic and increasing awareness of the use of gloves and the implementation of stricter health protocols than before.The urgent need for PPE where one of them is gloves that are safe during a pandemic makes PT.X decided to add another business by producing the main material for gloves with 100 nanometer particles in 2020.Lubricant products for gloves making materials are not only marketed domestically, but also exported to foreign countries such as Malaysia.Lubricant machine investments carried out with price details are as follows: In making investments, some conditions are often encountered outside of planning, as happened with PT.X, with a machine investment worth 6.9 billion for the production of lubricant material for medical gloves.In 2021 during the second wave of the Covid-19 virus with the Delta variant, PT.X experienced a surge in demand, but in 2022 with the start of the end of the Covid-19 pandemic sales experienced a significant decline, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Glove Lubricant Sales Data
Based on the above conditions, it is necessary to carry out a feasibility analysis of machine investment to determine the extent in which the investment can be maintained.
The valuation method that will be used later is the DPP, NPV, BCR, and PI, the analysis is carried out with optimistic, moderate and pessimistic versions of probability.
Calculation of the pessimistic version in its sense is estimating sales within one year to be able to generate the lowest income that has been estimated by the business owner, then the moderate version is capital budgeting which estimates income within one year to be able to generate medium income, then the calculation of the optimistic version is estimate the income of a business within one year to be able to generate the highest income.

THEORETIC
According to (Arfah, 2021) states that investment can be interpreted as an investment in an activity that has a relatively long period of time in various business fields.Investments that are invested in a narrow sense are in the form of certain projects, both physical and non-physical.One of the most important things in investing is the ability to spend capital at this time to obtain benefits or benefits in the future.(Mavlutova, et al., 2021) states that the broader investment objective is to improve the welfare of investors.Welfare in this case is monetary well-being, which can be measured by adding up current income plus the present value of future income.
The financial aspect analyzes the amount of investment and working capital costs as well as the level of investment control of the business to be run, as well as to assess what costs will be incurred.Then also examine how much income will be received if the project is carried out.

Sales
prevailing interest rates, so that when calculated using the investment valuation formula it is very profitable.The valuation method that will be used later is the DPP, NPV, BCR, and PI.
1. Discounted Payback Period (DPP) Payback Period (PP) is the time period required to return the investment in the project.PP Criteria, there is no clear time limit, everything depends on the owner of the capital.But in general, a short payback period is preferred.The advantage of the PP method is that it is easy to calculate and understand.Meanwhile, the weakness of the PP method is that it ignores cash flows after the PP and the time value of money (Chiapello, 2020).In overcoming the weakness of the PP, the calculation of the Discounted Payback Period (DPP) is carried out.DPP is a refund period calculated using the discount factor.The DPP can be found by calculating how many years the net cash flow cumulative present value is estimated to be the same as the initial investment (Hidayat et al., 2019).

Net Present Value (NPV)
NPV is one of the capital budgeting techniques that considers the most widely used time/money values.Thus, NPV is the difference between discounted cash inflow at the minimum interest rate or the company's cost of capital minus the investment value (Raharjo, 2022).

Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)
BCR is a method used to compare the level of benefits obtained with the total costs incurred.A stock can be said to be profitable if the BCR value is ˃ 1.If the BCR value is greater, the greater the benefits that will be obtained from the business.

Profitability Index (PI)
PI is the ratio between the present value of cash flow receipts and the present value of cash outflows.(2021).However, there has been no research conducting an analysis of the feasibility of investing in machines after the pandemic as a basis for making decisions on the feasibility of investing in machines that have been implemented.This research produces something new in analyzing the feasibility of machine investment based on 3 sales probabilities.

METHOD
This research method is exploratory qualitative research, namely research that emphasizes more on data collection and input.This is done in the financial aspect feasibility analysis to determine the feasibility of machine investment with 3 probabilities namely pessimistic, moderate and optimistic.The stages in this study consist of 5 stages as follows: 1. Define the problem Problem identification is defining existing problems and making these problems measurable and testable.

Identify each alternative
At this stage, each alternative is identified as a feasible solution 3. Analysis of financial aspects with 3 probabilities.
At this stage analysis is based on data collection in the form of documentation, observations, interviews and literature study.With operational variables in Table 2 below:

Recommendations
At this stage it provides recommendations so that the investment in the lubricant machine is feasible to maintain.

RESULT
Sales proceeds are obtained from the lubricant machine with data from 2020 to 2022 as follows: Analysis of the feasibility of investing in discounted machines that are used based on an average annual interest of 10% is expected before 5 years of return on investment issued.The results of the analysis with 3 probabilities are as follows:

DPP Analysis
Table 5. DPP optimistic probability, the discounted payback period is considered feasible because it is less than 5 years.Based on Table 6, the results show that the probability is pessimistic with NPV <0 and PI <1, so the investment in a lubricant machine is not feasible.Moderate and optimistic probability with NPV > 0 and PI > 1, investment in lubricant machine is feasible.Based on the results of the discussion above, it can be concluded that the feasibility analysis of machine investment using the DPP, NPV, BCR, PI methods is not feasible for pessimistic probabilities and is feasible for moderate and optimistic probabilities.Thus PT.X can maintain the investment in the lubricant machine if sales are achieved with moderate and optimistic probabilities.

Feasibility
research with financial aspects has been carried out by several researchers such asIrmawati et al. (2018),Masnunah et al. (2020) andWibowo et al.